Vicious Bear

This is the most vicious bear market of all-time.
20% of the worst decline (in %Chg) in the Dow occurred this year... and we still have a month to go.

Greatest DJIA Daily % Losses
of All-Time
Rank	Date	Close	Net Chg	% Chg
1	10/19/1987	1,738.74	–508.00	–22.61
2	10/28/1929	260.64	–38.33	–12.82
3	10/29/1929	230.07	–30.57	–11.73
4	11/6/1929	232.13	–25.55	–9.92
5	12/18/1899	58.27	–5.57	–8.72
6	8/12/1932	63.11	–5.79	–8.40
7	3/14/1907	76.23	–6.89	–8.29
8	10/26/1987	1,793.93	–156.83	–8.04
9	10/15/2008	8,577.91	–733.08	–7.87
10	7/21/1933	88.71	–7.55	–7.84
11	10/18/1937	125.73	–10.57	–7.75
12	12/1/2008	8,149.09	–679.95	–7.70
13	10/9/2008	8,579.19	–678.91	–7.33
14	2/1/1917	88.52	–6.91	–7.24
15	10/27/1997	7,161.14	–554.26	–7.18
16	10/5/1932	66.07	–5.09	–7.15
17	9/17/2001	8,920.70	–684.81	–7.13
18	9/24/1931	107.79	–8.20	–7.07
19	7/20/1933	96.26	–7.32	–7.07
20	9/29/2008	10,365.45	–777.68	–6.98

Source: www.djindexes.com

The 2nd biggest drop of this year occurred 2 days ago, yet I don't sense the same fear I did during the October low.
Adding some flavor to it, the junk bond market is hinting a default rate much higher than depression (21% compare to 15%) Click Here for more detail.
Bill Gross, the Warren Buffet of bond market, released his investment outlook today that was not very encouraging.

This is rather strange because the Dow declined some 35% YTD and we have yet to have any meaningful rally. I sense some exhaustion in this Bear. However, my research allows me to believe that we are at the end of the first leg down in this bear market. Typical bear market contains anywhere from three to nine legs (during the Great Depression)

A bear market rally should arrive any moment now, but I wouldn't bet on it with my money.

Good luck,
Art

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